So the most aniticipated spring football event on the planet is only one day away and I can't wait. Me and my draft crew were a little bummed to see the Draft move to prime time Thursday and Friday this year. The all day Saturday debacle had been a long running tradition of ours but as usual we've embraced change and are ready for a great first round. I haven't finalized my mock draft yet but luckily ESPN's The Sports Guy Bill Simmons has. I should warn you that Bill might not be the guy to go to for your draft needs but he's the funniest. Here are his first five picks. To read the full Simmons Mock Draft click here.
Of the 4,625,918 people with a sports column or sports blog, I am the only one who hasn't written an NFL mock draft before. How is that possible? I love mock drafts! What's more in my wheelhouse than a column filled with a ton of hyperbole, opinions that can't be proved and, of course, a lot of mocking? I allowed nine NFL drafts to sneak by me at ESPN.com like a hanging slider; this will not be the 10th. Let's get it on.
1. St. Louis - Sam Bradford, QB
I guess I'm confused. When Ndamukong Suh left a trail of bodies at Nebraska last season, everyone agreed, "That dude is a wrecking machine, he's definitely the No. 1 pick." Then, the season ended … and everyone started picking Suh apart. He turned 23 in January. The track record of defensive tackles going first overall isn't great. I'm not so sure Gerald McCoy isn't better. You gotta grab a franchise QB here if you can get one. As soon as Bradford's shoulder received a clean bill of health, momentum swung behind him because, you know, any time you can take someone first in a draft when everyone agrees he isn't one of the best two players, you have to do it.
There is no talking the Rams out of this one: The new owners want a poster boy for their new regime; their beaten-down fans need a Hope Vessel, and there's no better way to feed that beast than grabbing a good-looking QB with a Hollywood-ready name like "Sam Bradford." It's probably the right pick. Hit a draft-day home run with a quarterback and it's a grand slam. Hit a draft-day home run with any other position and it's a home run. I just know that three levels of "franchise quarterbacks" have been taken in the top three picks since 1998:
Level 1 (no way they were missing): Peyton Manning (1), Michael Vick (1).
Level 2 (almost definitely weren't missing): Carson Palmer (1), Eli Manning (1).
Level 3 (hopefully weren't missing): David Carr (1), Tim Couch (1), Alex Smith (1), JaMarcus Russell (1), Matthew Stafford (1), Ryan Leaf (2), Donovan McNabb (2), Akili Smith (3), Joey Harrington (3), Vince Young (3), Matt Ryan (3).
At the time, you would have bet your life on the Level 1 guys making it (barring injury). You wouldn't have bet your life on the Level 2 guys, but you would have at least asked for odds. You would not have wagered your life on any of the Level 3 guys. Three made it; seven bombed; and Young gets an incomplete. If anything, getting picked that high set those guys up for failure: Expectations skyrocketed; their teams felt obligated to play them before they were ready; and they were asked to do too much too soon. The experts believe Bradford is a Level 2 guy, although it's worth noting that he qualifies -- potentially -- under everything in the previous sentence.
Digging deeper, let's say the NFL pressed the reset button, made every QB a free agent, then held a QB lottery for the 32 teams. The top 12 order of preference would look something like this: Peyton Manning (picked first overall); Tom Brady (sixth round); Drew Brees (second round); Philip Rivers (fourth overall); Aaron Rodgers (24th overall); Ben Roethlisberger (11th overall); Mark Sanchez (fifth overall); Matt Ryan (third overall); Eli Manning (first overall); Tony Romo (undrafted); Joe Flacco (18th overall); Matt Schaub (third round).
Translation: Drafting QBs is a freaking crapshoot. You're throwing dice. If you miss with a top-3 pick, it's a catastrophe because of the financial hit and the seasons squandered trying to make a bad situation work. (See: Russell, JaMarcus.) The six teams that misfired on Carr, Couch, Leaf, Harrington and the Smiths failed to win a playoff game for at least SIX STRAIGHT YEARS after whiffing on those picks; all six picked in the top 3 of another draft within three years of the whiff; and the seventh team (Oakland) has missed three straight postseasons since whiffing on Russell.
So based on the last 12 years of evidence, it's just as likely that Bradford will murder the Rams as save them. Of course, you could have said the same thing about Matthew Stafford last spring … and he made it. That's why St. Louis will take Bradford. Just don't tell me it's a "safe pick" because it's not. The next guy is the safe pick.
2. Detroit - Ndamukong Suh, DT
Gives the Lions franchise guys on both sides of the ball, and that's before we get to Suh's character (Did you catch this story about his $2.6 million donation to Nebraska)? Are they definitely taking him? Of course not! They're reportedly open to trading down. Just take the dude already. We want to watch a good Detroit game on Thanksgiving before we die. By the way, my Dad would like to announce that he'll be calling this guy "Suh" on Thursday night.
3. Tampa Bay - Gerald McCoy, DT
One of those picks that makes you wish they did the NFL draft like we would -- with 32 GMs crammed around a long table, magazines and cheat sheets strewn everywhere, the Bucs taking their sweet time at No. 3, and a couple of the other GMs finally getting pissed and saying, "Come on, we all know you're taking McCoy, he's the best pick by far; I don't want to be here until 2 in the morning. JUST EFFING TAKE HIM!"
4. Washington - TRADE!
Washington wants a left tackle to protect McNabb. Picking next, Kansas City doesn't need a left tackle … which means Russell Okung or Trent Williams could be there at No. 7 … a spot where Cleveland wants a playmaker on defense. Do I need to spell this out for you?
Cleveland trades No. 7, No. 85 and No. 92 to Washington for No. 4 and No. 103.
4. Cleveland - Eric Berry, S
One of many things that bugs me about the NFL draft: Everyone, and I mean, EVERYONE, agrees that Eric Berry is (A) one of four no-doubt-abouters in this draft; (B) quite possibly "The Next Ed Reed"; and (C) someone who passes the Champ Bailey Test -- in other words, just glancing at his name makes you think, "That's a guy who sounds like he's gonna be good." So why wouldn't Berry go fourth? Because the moronic rookie salary structure severely overvalues the top-10 picks, so teams worry that top-5 is too expensive for a free safety.
Here's my counter: You're getting a multiyear All-Pro! Who cares??? Reed went 24th in the 2002 draft; if you did that first round over again, Dwight Freeney goes first, Julius Peppers goes second, Albert Haynesworth goes third … and Reed goes fourth. If you asked Baltimore whether Reed was worth No. 4 cap money from 2002 to 2007, I'd bet my baseball card collection the Ravens would say yes. Berry should go fourth.
5. Kansas City - TRADE!
Follow this formula: (No obvious pick) + (Belichick disciple Scott Pioli running the show) = a Bizarro Jeffersons move ("We're movin' on down!").
Washington trades No. 7 and No. 92 to Kansas City for No. 5.
5. Washington (via fake trade) - Trent Williams, OT
That was fun: The Redskins made two trades, jumped 18 spots in the third round and landed their tackle at a slightly lower cap spot. Williams gets the edge over Russell Okung only because he has gained momentum in the past few weeks. The good news for Okung: Even if he isn't the top tackle drafted, he still gets his own all-star team: the Russell Okung All-Stars for "Athletes who sound like they might be Asian even though they aren't."
If you're serious about your mock draft you may want to check out the interactive Mel Kiper Mock Draft experience. But be careful experimenting with new technology. It sure got the best of Todd McShay.
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